Modelling of Heracleum sosnowskyi Manden. and Heracleum mantegazzianum Sommier & Levier Population Area Increase Rate

Pub Date : 2023-12-29 DOI:10.1134/s2075111723040045

I. V. Dalke, I. F. Chadin

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Abstract

On the basis of developed individual-based model and empirical data the importance of anemochory for the dispersal of giant hogweed mericarpia over long distances (up to 55 m from the parent plant) was proved. The use of cellular automate for modelling of the plant population area increase allowed to reveal the influence of weather condition, number and spatial distribution of hogweed plants in the period of the beginning of introduction on the rate of invasion. Verification of the results of the cellular automaton work based on satellite images and field observations showed a significant level of compliance of theoretical calculations and observed results. The logistic functions parameters describing the change in the area of giant invasive hogweed stands were determined. A retrospective analysis of satellite images of model plots, starting from the 1990s of the 20th century, showed an annual increase in the area of hogweed populations by 20% in the exponential population growth phase. A significant variability in the rate of invasion (from 5 to 70% per year) depended on the initial conditions and stage of invasion, usage modes and ecological capacity of the available sites.

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Heracleum sosnowskyi Manden.和 Heracleum mantegazzianum Sommier & Levier 的种群面积增长率模型

摘要在所开发的基于个体的模型和经验数据的基础上，证明了风媒对巨型猪笼草 mericarpia 远距离（距离母株 55 米）传播的重要性。使用细胞自动机模拟植物种群面积的增加，可以揭示引种初期的天气条件、猪笼草植物数量和空间分布对入侵速度的影响。根据卫星图像和实地观测结果对细胞自动机的工作结果进行了验证，结果表明理论计算与观测结果的吻合程度很高。确定了描述巨型入侵猪笼草面积变化的逻辑函数参数。从 20 世纪 90 年代开始，对模型地块的卫星图像进行的回顾性分析表明，在种群指数增长阶段，猪笼草的面积每年增加 20%。入侵率（每年从 5% 到 70%）的变化很大，这取决于入侵的初始条件和阶段、使用模式以及可用地点的生态能力。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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