US agricultural exports and the 2022 Mississippi River drought

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of the 2022 Mississippi River drought on agricultural trade using counterfactual evaluation methods and detailed trade data at the US port level. The study examines how the drought disrupted agricultural shipments out of Louisiana ports and whether the disruption led to trade diversion to other ports. Our findings reveal that shipments out of Louisiana ports were 3.9% or $560 million below the counterfactual between July 2022 and January 2023. In addition, the dynamic treatment estimates provide evidence of immediate trade recovery after the drought receded in October 2022, indicating that the impact of the drought was short-lived. Wheat exports were the most affected, experiencing a reduction in shipments from Louisiana ports of $150 million and being diverted to US ports on the West Coast. In contrast, corn and soybeans did not experience lasting trade destruction or diversion to other ports. Our analysis also reveals that export prices increased significantly above the counterfactual level at Louisiana ports, suggesting that the drought impacted the supply and export dynamics of agricultural commodities. In conclusion, this paper provides valuable insights into the short-run implications of natural disasters on agricultural trade. [EconLit Citations: F14, Q17].