Comparison of Trend Parameters and Seasonal Indices in the Presence and Absence of Missing Values of Exponential Trend-Cycle in Time Series Analysis

Abstract

This study examines the comparison of trend cycle and seasonal components in the presence and absence of missing observations. The method adopted in this study is based on the row, column and overall means of the time series arranged in a Buys-Ballot table with m rows and s columns.  The method assumes that (1) Only one data is missing at a time in the Buys-Ballot table (2) the trending curve is exponential (3) the modal structure is additive. The study indicates that, the estimation of the missing observations as they occur consecutively with the errors being normally distributed. Results indicate that, the differences in the trend parameters for both situations are insignificant because they are approximately the same. In the case of corresponding seasonal effects, significant differences existed on the points in which there are missing values in the column of the Buys-Ballot table.