An evolutionary view of foresight in the field of artificial intelligence

Abstract

The article analyzes the task of scientific foresight in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) and assesses the possibility of predicting AI development in the coming decades. Based on an evolutionary model of AI, the authors hypothesize that AI fits into the evolutionary development of humans. Drawing on the ideas of nomogenesis, first introduced by biologist L.S. Berg in 1922, they argue that embracing the concept of stable evolutionary patterns creates a fundamental possibility to predict a certain range of forthcoming changes as a result. The question of transferring the function of foresight from humans to AI is also examined, particularly in areas of science and technology where decision-making necessitates complex analysis of future potential outcomes. Strong arguments are presented in favor of the possibility of predicting AI development in principle, although with some degree of probability. This optimistic view aligns with researchers across various domains of human activity in which AI has already found or will yet find its application.