Does credit growth mitigate emission intensity in ASEAN countries?

Abstract

In empirical studies, the disparity between financial development and environmental quality has prompted us to examine the impact of credit growth on environmental quality in ASEAN countries. These countries have experienced phenomenal credit growth over the past three decades due to their adoption of financial liberalisation, integration and innovation. In this study, we investigated the role of credit growth on environmental quality while controlling for several macroeconomic variables, including regulatory quality, natural resources, foreign direct investment, globalisation and per capita gross domestic product growth. Using static models (ordinary least square [OLS], random effect model, Panel Corrected Standard Error and partial spatial cross correlation) and dynamic models (dynamic OLS, dynamic random effect and two-step system generalised methods of moments (GMM) on data spanning from 1984 to 2019, we observed a nonlinear association between credit growth and environmental quality. The findings suggest that credit growth may simultaneously have favourable and detrimental effects on environmental quality. High credit growth can lead to increased emissions and environmental degradation through the promotion of fossil fuel-driven energy consumption, production and distribution of economic resources. However, if the government promotes regulatory quality and encourages lenders to invest more in green technologies and renewable and sustainable energy sources, credit growth may contribute to improved environmental quality. These results carry important policy implications.