Pakistan’s export potential assessment at intensive and extensive margins

Imtiaz Ahmad, Maha Ahmad, Ghulam Qadir, Asad Khan Afridi
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Abstract

Purpose This study aims to estimate Pakistan’s export potential in new and existing export products, as well as their potential destination markets. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a nonparametric approach based on demand, supply and easiness factors for estimating export potential at disaggregated product and destination levels. Findings A significant number of new export products (extensive margin) and existing products (intensive margin) are identified that have export potential. The estimated unrealized export potential at extensive margins is $2bn and at intensive margins is $5bn. The range of new products included value-added products, semifinished products and intermediate products. Surprisingly, there is high potential to diversify in China and export existing products more intensively in the EU. Moreover, the potential at extensive margins is regional diverse compared to intensive margins. Research limitations/implications The methodology used in this paper only provides export potential for short-to-medium term period because the global demand conditions are varying. Also, the mineral and resource-based products cannot be included in the analysis because their exports are heavily dependent on the availability of natural resources. Practical implications The findings have important policy implications in terms of providing guidelines for government policies related to industrial development, international trade and export promotion at the product and destination level. Overall, the study reveals that traditional sectors lack room for product diversification. As the existing export incentives favor major industries. To foster diversification, existing incentives must be redesigned to cover new products or sectors. Moreover, China has the greatest potential for product diversification, while Europe has the greatest potential to export current products more intensively. Further research is needed to simulate trade policy scenarios and estimate demand, supply and ease factors in export potential. Originality/value This study provides a unique perspective on export potential assessment at disaggregated product and destination levels, reinforcing the importance of redesigning trade policies and export incentives separately for export diversification.
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巴基斯坦密集型和粗放型出口潜力评估
目的 本研究旨在估算巴基斯坦新的和现有出口产品的出口潜力及其潜在的目的地市场。 设计/方法/途径 本研究采用基于需求、供应和便利性因素的非参数方法来估算分类产品和目的地层面的出口潜力。 研究结果 发现了大量具有出口潜力的新出口产品(广义边际)和现有产品(密集边际)。据估计,广阔边际下的未实现出口潜力为 20 亿美元,密集边际下的未实现出口潜力为 50 亿美元。新产品的范围包括增值产品、半成品和中间产品。令人惊讶的是,中国的多样化潜力很大,现有产品在欧盟的出口力度更大。此外,与密集型产品相比,粗放型产品的潜力具有区域多样性。 研究局限性/意义 本文所使用的方法只能提供中短期的出口潜力,因为全球需求条件各不相同。此外,矿产品和资源型产品也不能纳入分析范围,因为它们的出口在很大程度上取决于自然资源的可用性。 实际意义 研究结果具有重要的政策意义,可在产品和目的地层面为政府有关工业发展、国际贸易和出口促进的政策提供指导。总体而言,研究显示传统行业缺乏产品多样化的空间。由于现有的出口激励措施有利于主要产业。为了促进多样化,必须重新设计现有的激励措施,以涵盖新的产品或行业。此外,中国在产品多样化方面的潜力最大,而欧洲在更密集地出口现有产品方面的潜力最大。需要进一步开展研究,模拟贸易政策情景,估算出口潜力中的需求、供应和宽松因素。 独创性/价值 本研究提供了一个独特的视角,从分类产品和目的地层面对出口潜力进行评估,强化了分别重新制定贸易政策和出口激励措施以促进出口多样化的重要性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.90
自引率
25.80%
发文量
28
期刊介绍: Review of International Business and Strategy is keen to present contemporary and innovative research that proposes new perspectives or challenges existing theories, and that advances the understanding of issues related to international business and global strategy. Themes covered by the journal include (but are not limited to): Internationalization of firms and international entrepreneurship Effects of international environment (political, social, economic and institutional) on international business activities and firm strategies Knowledge transfer strategies and innovation in MNEs Location strategies in international business activities.
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