Drought in the Breadbasket of America and the Influence of Oceanic Teleconnections

IF 3.1 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Hydrology Pub Date : 2023-11-21 DOI:10.3390/hydrology10120215

Olivia G. Campbell, Gregory B. Goodrich

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Abstract

From 1980 to 2020, drought events accounted for only 11.4% of the billion-dollar disasters in the United States (U.S.), yet caused the second-highest total amount in damages, at USD 236.6 billion. With the average cost of a drought being upwards of USD 9.5 billion, these natural disasters can create serious problems in agriculture. Drought is defined as a period of below-average precipitation that causes damage to agriculture and water supplies. Previous research has linked drought events in the U.S. Great Plains to oceanic teleconnections in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, indicating the influence of El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This study looks to identify areas of the Great Plains where drought, as measured by PDSI, has the strongest relationship to ENSO, PDO, and AMO from 1950 to 2019. The states studied are Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Texas, Nebraska, and Kansas because these rank as the second through seventh most agriculturally productive states in terms of crop and livestock production. Results show that most of this region displays a relationship between drought and the ENSO and PDO, with less of the region displaying a relationship with the AMO.

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美洲粮仓的干旱与海洋遥联的影响

从 1980 年到 2020 年，干旱事件仅占美国十亿美元灾害的 11.4%，但造成的损失总额却高达 2,366 亿美元，位居第二。一场干旱的平均损失高达 95 亿美元，这些自然灾害会给农业带来严重问题。干旱是指降水量低于平均水平，对农业和供水造成损害的时期。先前的研究已将美国大平原的干旱事件与太平洋和大西洋盆地的海洋远程联系联系起来，表明厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）、太平洋十年涛动（PDO）和大西洋多十年涛动（AMO）的影响。本研究旨在确定从 1950 年到 2019 年，大平原上以 PDSI 衡量的干旱与 ENSO、PDO 和 AMO 关系最密切的地区。所研究的州包括爱荷华州、伊利诺伊州、明尼苏达州、得克萨斯州、内布拉斯加州和堪萨斯州，因为就作物和牲畜产量而言，这些州的农业产量排名第二至第七位。结果表明，该地区大部分地区的干旱与厄尔尼诺/南方涛动和 PDO 之间存在关系，与 AMO 存在关系的地区较少。

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来源期刊

Hydrology Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth-Surface Processes

CiteScore

4.90

自引率

21.90%

发文量

192

审稿时长

6 weeks

期刊介绍： Journal of Hydrology publishes original research papers and comprehensive reviews in all the subfields of the hydrological sciences, including water based management and policy issues that impact on economics and society. These comprise, but are not limited to the physical, chemical, biogeochemical, stochastic and systems aspects of surface and groundwater hydrology, hydrometeorology, hydrogeology and hydrogeophysics. Relevant topics incorporating the insights and methodologies of disciplines such as climatology, water resource systems, ecohydrology, geomorphology, soil science, instrumentation and remote sensing, data and information sciences, civil and environmental engineering are within scope. Social science perspectives on hydrological problems such as resource and ecological economics, sociology, psychology and behavioural science, management and policy analysis are also invited. Multi-and interdisciplinary analyses of hydrological problems are within scope. The science published in the Journal of Hydrology is relevant to catchment scales rather than exclusively to a local scale or site. Studies focused on urban hydrological issues are included.