Impact of climate change on the extreme weather hazards and natural disasters in Bulgaria

Abstract

The question of whether the climate of Bulgaria is changing and in what direction is not yet fully understood and this gives rise to various hypotheses and analyzes, which are often a reason for heated discussions between scientists with different expertise. However, there is agreement between the scientists that the increase in the frequency and intensity of meteorological and climate extremes and the natural disasters provoked by them are related to climate change. The possible effects of climate and meteorological extreems on the risk of adverse events and natural disasters in Bulgaria have been studied by different authors for different periods of observation. There are also many open access data that we have used for analysis purposes in this paper. The article aims to interpret the results of various studies on the changes in the behavior of major climatic and meteorological elements and extremes in Bulgaria in recent decades in the context of existing scenarios and indicators of climate change in the latter. The results show that there are already changes in the indicators for the territory of our country and that Bulgaria will be significantly affected by the global warming to the end of this century. This impact will in most cases be unfavorable both for the country’s economy and for the people’s health and the state of ecosystems, and will contribute to increasing the risk of natural disasters.