Prediction long term Surface Temperature Variation in Kurdistan Region using Meteonorm Weather Generator (MWG)

Safa Gh, Hameed, Sardar M. R. K. Al-Jumur
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Abstract

The climate of Kurdistan Region was subjected to many changes that led to a noticeable rise in temperatures. The current study aims to assess the climate of Kurdistan Region-Iraq by using Weather Generator program (MWG). We have chosen two different regions which are Erbil and Duhok governorates. The global climate database (MWG) was run for the three climate scenarios B1, A1B and A2 for 2020, 2050 and 2100. The average temperature was calculated and analyzed for the period (2000-2009) for Erbil and Dohuk governorates. The results have shown that Scenario B1 predicted the lowest rise in temperature compared to Scenario A2 which expected the highest rise in temperature. The predicted temperature of Erbil is higher than Dohuk for the three selected years and scenarios.
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利用气象风暴天气发生器(MWG)预测库尔德斯坦地区的长期地表温度变化
库尔德斯坦地区的气候发生了许多变化,导致气温明显上升。本研究旨在利用天气生成程序(MWG)评估伊拉克库尔德斯坦地区的气候。我们选择了两个不同的地区,即埃尔比勒省和杜胡克省。全球气候数据库(MWG)在 2020 年、2050 年和 2100 年运行了 B1、A1B 和 A2 三种气候情景。对埃尔比勒省和杜胡克省 2000-2009 年期间的平均气温进行了计算和分析。结果表明,方案 B1 预测的气温升幅最低,而方案 A2 预测的气温升幅最高。在三个选定年份和方案中,埃尔比勒的预测气温高于杜胡克。
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发文量
64
审稿时长
8 weeks
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