The impact of trade with ASEAN on India’s employment in industrial sector

IF 1.5 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy Pub Date : 2023-10-02 DOI:10.1080/13547860.2021.1976000

Devasmita Jena, Swati Saini

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract This paper examines the impact of trade with ASEAN on industry-level employment in India during the period of 1996–1997 to 2016–2017. Using the KLEMS and CMIE databases, we construct a unique dataset covering fifteen industrial sectors in India. We employ the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) approach to estimate the long-run relationship between employment and trade. For the full period of our study, we find that import penetration had a detrimental effect on employment while we find little evidence of any significant effect of export intensity on employment. There exists a structural break at 2004–2005, after which industrial sector has registered a decline in the rate of employment growth as well as India saw worsening of trade balance with ASEAN. Our results suggest that while export and import have had favorable impact on industrial sector employment prior to 2004–2005, AIFTA led to decline in industrial sector employment post 2004–2005.

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与东盟的贸易对印度工业部门就业的影响

摘要本文研究了 1996-1997 年至 2016-2017 年期间与东盟的贸易对印度产业层面就业的影响。利用 KLEMS 和 CMIE 数据库，我们构建了一个涵盖印度 15 个工业部门的独特数据集。我们采用集合均值组（PMG）方法来估计就业与贸易之间的长期关系。在整个研究期间，我们发现进口渗透对就业产生了不利影响，而出口密集度对就业的显著影响则证据不足。2004-2005 年出现了结构性中断，此后工业部门的就业增长率下降，印度与东盟的贸易平衡恶化。我们的研究结果表明，2004-2005 年之前，出口和进口对工业部门的就业产生了有利影响，而 2004-2005 年之后，《东盟与印度自由贸易协定》则导致了工业部门就业的下降。

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来源期刊

Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

7.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy (JAPE) is concerned primarily with the developing economies within Pacific Asia and South Asia. It aims to promote greater understanding of the complex factors that have influenced and continue to shape the transformation of the diverse economies in this region. Studies on developed countries will be considered only if they have implications for the developing countries in the region. The journal''s editorial policy is to maintain a sound balance between theoretical and empirical studies. JAPE publishes research papers in economics but also welcomes papers that deal with economic issues using a multi-disciplinary approach. Submissions may range from overviews spanning the region or parts of it, to papers with a detailed focus on particular issues facing individual countries. JAPE has a broad readership, which makes papers concerned with narrow and detailed technical matters inappropriate for inclusion. In addition, papers should not be simply one more application of a formal model or statistical technique used elsewhere. Authors should note that discussion of results must make sense intuitively, and relate to the institutional and historical context of the geographic area analyzed. We particularly ask authors to spell out the practical policy implications of their findings for governments and business. In addition to articles, JAPE publishes short notes, comments and book reviews. From time to time, it also publishes special issues on matters of great importance to economies in the Asia Pacific area.