Prediksi Finansial Distress pada Salah Satu Bank Konvensional Menggunakan Machine Learning

F. Lestari
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Abstract

Financial distress is when a company experiences a shortage or insufficient funds to run the company. Prediction of financial distress is needed to prevent bankruptcy. In this study, financial distress predictions were made based on financial ratios obtained from monthly financial reports from a bank convention, after which the proportion that had the most influence on financial distress was determined. The models used in this study are several machine learning models, namely, Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, and Random Forest. Based on the analysis results, the best model for predicting financial pressure is the Random Forest Model, with an accuracy of 96.77%. Based on the best model obtained, namely the Random Forest, it can be determined that the ratio that is very influential on financial distress is the ratio of Total Asset Turnover.
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利用机器学习预测一家传统银行的财务困境
财务困境是指公司经营资金短缺或不足。为防止破产,需要对财务困境进行预测。在本研究中,财务困境预测基于从银行月度财务报告中获取的财务比率,然后确定对财务困境影响最大的比例。本研究中使用的模型是几种机器学习模型,即逻辑回归、支持向量机和随机森林。根据分析结果,预测财务压力的最佳模型是随机森林模型,准确率为 96.77%。根据获得的最佳模型,即随机森林模型,可以确定对财务困境影响很大的比率是总资产周转率。
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