PROSPECTS FOR THE TECHNOLOGICAL RE-EQUIPMENT OF INDUSTRY IN THE EUROPEAN AND ASIAN PARTS OF RUSSIA

A. V. Sokolov, V. A. Bazhanov
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Abstract

The article assesses the state of industry and manufacturing in the European and Asian parts of Russia. The prospects for the development of industry as a whole and its manufacturing industries in the near future are assessed from the point of view of realizing the intentions to create technological sovereignty and increase demand for domestic industrial products. It is possible that this may entail shifts in the territorial distribution of processing, in particular, due to a shift in development priorities to the Asian part of the country, especially since recently there has been an increase in Asian landmarks in geopolitical terms. With the help of calculations based on the panel data model, a quantitative assessment of the impact of investment dynamics on the dynamics of industrial growth for the constituent entities of the Russian Federation over a long period was obtained. Calculations showed that, despite the fact that investments in industrial production in the Asian part of Russia grew at a faster rate than in the European part, due to their lower return, they did not lead to a fundamental change in the territorial structure of industrial production. With the help of aggregated indicators calculated by the method of principal components, an assessment was made of the potential of manufacturing industries in the macroregions of the country. Based on the values of the calculated indicators, it was concluded that there have been no significant positive changes in the state of processing of the Asian part of the country over the last decade of the current century, despite significant investment in its development in 2018-2021. In general, the overall potential of the manufacturing industries in this part of the country cannot yet be considered as essential in achieving the emerging strategic tasks.
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俄罗斯欧亚地区工业技术再装备的前景
文章评估了俄罗斯欧洲和亚洲地区的工业和制造业状况。文章从实现建立技术主权和增加国内工业产品需求的意图的角度,评估了整个工业及其制造业在不久的将来的发展前景。这有可能导致加工的地域分布发生变化,特别是由于发展重点向亚洲地区转移,尤其是最近亚洲在地缘政治方面的标志性事件增多。在基于面板数据模型的计算帮助下,对投资动态对俄罗斯联邦各主体长期工业增长动态的影响进行了定量评估。计算结果表明,尽管俄罗斯亚洲地区的工业生产投资增长速度快于欧洲地区,但由于其回报率较低,并没有导致工业生产的地区结构发生根本性变化。借助用主成分法计算的综合指标,对国家宏观地区制造业的潜力进行了评估。根据计算出的指标值得出结论,尽管 2018-2021 年对亚洲地区的发展进行了大量投资,但本世纪最后十年,亚洲地区的加工业状况并没有发生显著的积极变化。总体而言,该地区制造业的整体潜力尚不能被视为实现新兴战略任务的必要条件。
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