Management strategy evaluation of harvest control rules for Pacific Herring in Prince William Sound, Alaska

Abstract

Management strategy evaluation (MSE) provides a mechanism to test the relative performance of alternative management strategies on a fishery. For Pacific herring in Prince William Sound, Alaska, no directed fisheries have occurred in over 30 years, providing an opportunity to evaluate potential management strategies before a fishery is opened. Here we evaluate and compare 10 harvest control rules (HCRs) ranging from simple threshold rules to rules accounting for population age structure, biomass trends, and weight distribution using an MSE integrated with a fully Bayesian stock assessment estimation model. We developed a utility function that shows simple threshold HCRs outperform the more complex rules, especially for catch stability. According to this utility function, the best rule had a lower limit threshold than the current default rule, while the worst rule had a higher limit threshold. Our simulations demonstrate that sufficient computing power exists for MSEs based on Bayesian estimation methods, thus opening a pathway for MSEs to simulation test probabilistic control rules, which provide a buffer against scientific uncertainty and should reduce the risk of overfishing.