A COMPARISON OF ARCH MODELS: THE DETERMINANTS OF BITCOIN’S PRICE

Abstract

The aim of this study is to determine the number of transactions among the currencies, which will eventually become a part of our lives, cannot be physically held, can move quickly, and emerge as a new shopping and investment tool in the changing world order, as of the year (2023) when this study was conducted. The study focuses on the analysis of the variables that affect the most popular currency, Bitcoin. Although the analysis of variables that influence Bitcoin was determined as the primary aim of the study, the study also attempted to reach a general conclusion about the variables affected by the cryptocurrencies. Since there is no other cryptocurrency that is traded as much as Bitcoin, Bitcoin is thought to be a good model for the analysis of cryptocurrencies. The method used in the study was autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (ARCH) models. It is believed that the most suitable models for the Bitcoin variable, whose value changes every second, are ARCH and its derivatives. Other models selected from the ARCH models were also added to the analysis as a method. The models used in the study can be listed as follows: linear ARC, generalized ARC (GARCH), exponential GARCH and threshold GARCH. A statistical model called autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) is used to study the volatility of time series. Through the provision of a volatility model that more closely mimics actual markets, ARCH modeling is utilized in the financial sector to quantify risk. According to ARCH modeling, periods of high volatility are followed by even higher volatility, and periods of low volatility are followed by even lower volatility. In this study, 5 different variables were selected using literature to analyze the variables affecting Bitcoin returns using ARCH models. The dependent variable in the study is the price of Bitcoin. The remaining variables were included in the models as independent variables. These variables are actually variables that are accepted and selected as the best among a set of variables. In other words, 15 variables were first added to the study using the literature. After this, a correlation analysis was carried out. As a result of the correlation analysis, the variables with the highest correlation with the price of Bitcoin, which is the dependent variable, and the lowest correlation with each other were retained in the model. These variables are Bitcoin Price, Crude Oil Spot Price, Euro-Dollar Parity, Gold Spot Price and NASDAQ Composite Index. The study period is between 2020 and 2023 and it was studied using daily data. Days with no data were removed from the daily period from 2020 to 2023 and loss of information was prevented. After removing missing observations, this study examined the remaining 837 observations. During the research, while running the models created using different methods, it was found that the model that gives the best result is the GARCH model. In other words, when modeling the variables affecting bitcoin (cryptocurrency from the perspective of the population), it was seen that the GARCH model gave the best results when comparing linear ARCH, generalized ARCH (GARCH), exponential GARCH, and threshold GARCH of the ARCH model. Comparing the output of the GARCH model with other ARCH models not included in this study can be a recommendation for the future study