Quantifying the climate change impacts on the magnitude and timing of hydrological extremes in the Baro River Basin, Ethiopia

Abstract

Extreme hydrological events, like floods and droughts, exert considerable effects on both human and natural systems. The frequency, intensity, and duration of these events are expected to change due to climate change, posing challenges for water resource management and adaptation. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool plus (SWAT +) model was calibrated and validated to simulate flow under future shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios in the Baro River Basin with R2 values of 0.88 and 0.83, NSE of 0.83 and 0.74, and PBIAS of 0.39 and 8.87 during calibration and validation. Six bias-corrected CMIP6 Global Climate Models (GCM) were selected and utilized to investigate the effects of climate change on the magnitude and timing of hydrological extremes. All climate model simulation results suggest a general increase in streamflow magnitude for both emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The multi-model ensemble projections show yearly flow increases of 4.8% and 12.4% during the mid-term (MT) (2041–2070) and long-term (LT) (2071–2100) periods under SSP2-4.5, and 15.7% and 35.6% under SSP5-8.5, respectively. Additionally, the analysis revealed significant shifts in the projected annual 1 day, 3 day, 7 day, and 30 day maximum flows, whereas the annual 3 day and 7 day minimum flow fluctuations do not present a distinct trend in the future scenario compared to the baseline (1985–2014). The study also evaluated the timing of hydrological extremes, focusing on low and peak flow events, utilizing the annual 7 day maximum and minimum flow for this analysis. An earlier occurrence was noted for both peak and low flow in the SSP2-4.5 scenario, while a later occurrence was observed in the SSP5-8.5 scenario compared to the baseline. In conclusion, this study showed the significant effect of climate change on river hydrology and extreme flow events, highlighting their importance for informed water management and sustainable planning.