Limitations of Protein Structure Prediction Algorithms in Therapeutic Protein Development

Abstract

The three-dimensional protein structure is pivotal in comprehending biological phenomena. It directly governs protein function and hence aids in drug discovery. The development of protein prediction algorithms, such as AlphaFold2, ESMFold, and trRosetta, has given much hope in expediting protein-based therapeutic discovery. Though no study has reported a conclusive application of these algorithms, the efforts continue with much optimism. We intended to test the application of these algorithms in rank-ordering therapeutic proteins for their instability during the pre-translational modification stages, as may be predicted according to the confidence of the structure predicted by these algorithms. The selected molecules were based on a harmonized category of licensed therapeutic proteins; out of the 204 licensed products, 188 that were not conjugated were chosen for analysis, resulting in a lack of correlation between the confidence scores and structural or protein properties. It is crucial to note here that the predictive accuracy of these algorithms is contingent upon the presence of the known structure of the protein in the accessible database. Consequently, our conclusion emphasizes that these algorithms primarily replicate information derived from existing structures. While our findings caution against relying on these algorithms for drug discovery purposes, we acknowledge the need for a nuanced interpretation. Considering their limitations and recognizing that their utility may be constrained to scenarios where known structures are available is important. Hence, caution is advised when applying these algorithms to characterize various attributes of therapeutic proteins without the support of adequate structural information. It is worth noting that the two main algorithms, AlfphaFold2 and ESMFold, also showed a 72% correlation in their scores, pointing to similar limitations. While much progress has been made in computational sciences, the Levinthal paradox remains unsolved.