{"title":"The Threat of Economic Deglobalization from Cold War 2.0: A Japanese Perspective","authors":"M. Ando, Kazunobu Hayakawa, F. Kimura","doi":"10.1162/asep_a_00875","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n The intensified geopolitical tension in Northeast Asia and the U.S.–China confrontation have shifted policy debates in Japan toward national security while the economic discussion has become thin. To regain more balanced policy talks, this paper tries to quantitatively comprehend the effect of the United States and its allies’ export controls on the East Asian machinery production networks and Japan's trade performance. Major findings include the following four points: First, most of the supply chain decoupling policies by the Japanese government have been the ones to prepare for sudden interruptions of the supply of important items while decoupling policies for strategic competition are limited only in the context of the cooperation with the United States. Second, international trade statistics at the industry level do not show clear evidence of supply chain decoupling in East Asia due to the U.S. export controls, at least up to 2022. Third, however, the negative trade effect becomes visible at the product or individual firms’ level, and the recent strengthening of the United States and its allies’ export controls may augment the negative effect on machinery production networks. Fourth, although the scope of trade controls would expand further, the supply chain decoupling is likely to end up with a partial one. The paper claims that middle powers such as Japan must establish a well-balanced trade policy.","PeriodicalId":52020,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Papers","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Asian Economic Papers","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1162/asep_a_00875","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The intensified geopolitical tension in Northeast Asia and the U.S.–China confrontation have shifted policy debates in Japan toward national security while the economic discussion has become thin. To regain more balanced policy talks, this paper tries to quantitatively comprehend the effect of the United States and its allies’ export controls on the East Asian machinery production networks and Japan's trade performance. Major findings include the following four points: First, most of the supply chain decoupling policies by the Japanese government have been the ones to prepare for sudden interruptions of the supply of important items while decoupling policies for strategic competition are limited only in the context of the cooperation with the United States. Second, international trade statistics at the industry level do not show clear evidence of supply chain decoupling in East Asia due to the U.S. export controls, at least up to 2022. Third, however, the negative trade effect becomes visible at the product or individual firms’ level, and the recent strengthening of the United States and its allies’ export controls may augment the negative effect on machinery production networks. Fourth, although the scope of trade controls would expand further, the supply chain decoupling is likely to end up with a partial one. The paper claims that middle powers such as Japan must establish a well-balanced trade policy.
期刊介绍:
The journal Asian Economic Papers (AEP) is supported by several prominent institutions, including the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University in the United States. This shows that there is a strong emphasis on sustainable development within the journal's scope. Additionally, the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy in South Korea, the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) in Malaysia, and the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia in Indonesia also sponsor AEP. The articles published in AEP focus on conducting thorough and rigorous analyses of significant economic issues pertaining to specific Asian economies or the broader Asian region. The aim is to gain a deeper understanding of these issues and provide innovative solutions. By offering creative solutions to economic challenges, AEP contributes to the discourse and policymaking that impact the Asian economies and region as a whole.