Achieving the 1.5 °C goal with equitable mitigation in Latin American countries

Abstract

During the past years, the impact of climate change in Latin America has become more evident. It is affecting its natural resources and delaying sustainable development. Achieving the 1.5 °C long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement while ensuring the right to sustainable development is of particular interest to regions with high vulnerability and low adaptation capacity for climate change, such as Latin America. This article analyzes whether the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted within the Paris Agreement framework by Latin American countries align with achieving the 1.5 °C goal. For this analysis, the global carbon budget from 2020 onwards, compatible with the 1.5 °C global temperature scenario, is distributed among countries using two dimensions of equity (equality and historical responsibility). Then, the carbon budget allocated to Latin American countries is compared with the cumulative emissions implied in two scenarios. The first one is the NDC scenario that assumes the implementation of the NDCs submitted until December 31, 2022. The second scenario adds the goal of ending deforestation by 2030, signed by several countries of this region in the Global Leaders Declaration on Forest. Two main conclusions are obtained from the analysis of the cited scenarios. First, Latin American countries will consume 77% of their carbon budget in 2030 by implementing their NDCs. Second, this percentage could be reduced to 58% if Latin American countries reach zero emissions from the Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry sector by 2030. If achieved, the region would be on track to reach the 1.5 °C global goal.