Contrasting Responses of Spring and Summer Potato to Climate Change in South Korea

IF 2.3 3区 农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY Potato Research Pub Date : 2024-01-17 DOI:10.1007/s11540-024-09691-7
Yean-Uk Kim, Heidi Webber
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Abstract

This paper assessed the effects of climate change and planting date adjustment on spring and summer potato in South Korea for the period 2061–2090. The study applied the SUBSTOR-Potato model and outputs of 24 general circulation models to capture future variability in climate conditions for four shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathway scenarios. Without planting date adjustment, tuber yield was projected to increase by approximately 20% for spring and summer potato, indicating that the CO2 fertilization effect would offset the adverse effect of rising temperature. The effect of planting date adjustment was significant only for spring potato, where overall climate change impact with the optimized planting date was approximately +60%. For spring potato, the effects of rising temperature were bidirectional: temperature increases early in the year extended the growing season, whereas the higher temperature increases in June under the most severe climate change condition accelerated leaf senescence and reduced tuber bulking rate. Based on these results, different adaptation strategies could be established for spring potato for different climate change conditions. For example, developing frost-tolerant cultivars would continue to be recommended to plant earlier under the mild climate change conditions, whereas breeding mid-late maturity cultivars with high-temperature tolerance would be needed to delay senescence and enhance late tuber growth under the severe climate change conditions. Unlike spring potato, the breeding goal for summer potato of increasing high-temperature tolerance holds across all climate change conditions. Finally, these optimistic results should be interpreted with caution as the current model does not fully capture the effect of high-temperature episodes and the interactive effect between CO2 and temperature, which may reduce beneficial projected climate change impacts.

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韩国春薯和夏薯对气候变化的不同反应
本文评估了2061-2090年期间气候变化和种植日期调整对韩国春夏马铃薯的影响。该研究应用了 SUBSTOR-马铃薯模型和 24 个大气环流模型的输出结果,以捕捉四种共同的社会经济路径-代表浓度路径情景下未来气候条件的变化。在不调整种植日期的情况下,春马铃薯和夏马铃薯的块茎产量预计将增加约20%,这表明二氧化碳施肥效应将抵消温度上升的不利影响。只有春马铃薯的种植日期调整效果显著,优化后的种植日期对气候变化的总体影响约为 +60%。对春马铃薯而言,气温升高的影响是双向的:年初气温升高延长了生长期,而在最严重的气候变化条件下,6 月份气温升高加速了叶片衰老,降低了块茎膨大率。根据这些结果,可以为春马铃薯制定不同的适应战略,以应对不同的气候变化条件。例如,在温和的气候变化条件下,仍建议培育耐霜冻的栽培品种,以便提早种植;而在严重的气候变化条件下,则需要培育耐高温的中晚熟栽培品种,以延缓衰老,促进块茎后期生长。与春马铃薯不同,夏马铃薯提高耐高温性的育种目标在所有气候变化条件下都适用。最后,在解释这些乐观的结果时应谨慎,因为目前的模型并没有完全捕捉到高温事件的影响以及二氧化碳和温度之间的交互作用,这可能会降低有益的预测气候变化影响。
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来源期刊
Potato Research
Potato Research AGRONOMY-
CiteScore
5.50
自引率
6.90%
发文量
66
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Potato Research, the journal of the European Association for Potato Research (EAPR), promotes the exchange of information on all aspects of this fast-evolving global industry. It offers the latest developments in innovative research to scientists active in potato research. The journal includes authoritative coverage of new scientific developments, publishing original research and review papers on such topics as: Molecular sciences; Breeding; Physiology; Pathology; Nematology; Virology; Agronomy; Engineering and Utilization.
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