{"title":"Contrasting Responses of Spring and Summer Potato to Climate Change in South Korea","authors":"Yean-Uk Kim, Heidi Webber","doi":"10.1007/s11540-024-09691-7","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper assessed the effects of climate change and planting date adjustment on spring and summer potato in South Korea for the period 2061–2090. The study applied the SUBSTOR-Potato model and outputs of 24 general circulation models to capture future variability in climate conditions for four shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathway scenarios. Without planting date adjustment, tuber yield was projected to increase by approximately 20% for spring and summer potato, indicating that the CO<sub>2</sub> fertilization effect would offset the adverse effect of rising temperature. The effect of planting date adjustment was significant only for spring potato, where overall climate change impact with the optimized planting date was approximately +60%. For spring potato, the effects of rising temperature were bidirectional: temperature increases early in the year extended the growing season, whereas the higher temperature increases in June under the most severe climate change condition accelerated leaf senescence and reduced tuber bulking rate. Based on these results, different adaptation strategies could be established for spring potato for different climate change conditions. For example, developing frost-tolerant cultivars would continue to be recommended to plant earlier under the mild climate change conditions, whereas breeding mid-late maturity cultivars with high-temperature tolerance would be needed to delay senescence and enhance late tuber growth under the severe climate change conditions. Unlike spring potato, the breeding goal for summer potato of increasing high-temperature tolerance holds across all climate change conditions. Finally, these optimistic results should be interpreted with caution as the current model does not fully capture the effect of high-temperature episodes and the interactive effect between CO<sub>2</sub> and temperature, which may reduce beneficial projected climate change impacts.</p>","PeriodicalId":20378,"journal":{"name":"Potato Research","volume":"211 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Potato Research","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11540-024-09691-7","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"AGRONOMY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This paper assessed the effects of climate change and planting date adjustment on spring and summer potato in South Korea for the period 2061–2090. The study applied the SUBSTOR-Potato model and outputs of 24 general circulation models to capture future variability in climate conditions for four shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathway scenarios. Without planting date adjustment, tuber yield was projected to increase by approximately 20% for spring and summer potato, indicating that the CO2 fertilization effect would offset the adverse effect of rising temperature. The effect of planting date adjustment was significant only for spring potato, where overall climate change impact with the optimized planting date was approximately +60%. For spring potato, the effects of rising temperature were bidirectional: temperature increases early in the year extended the growing season, whereas the higher temperature increases in June under the most severe climate change condition accelerated leaf senescence and reduced tuber bulking rate. Based on these results, different adaptation strategies could be established for spring potato for different climate change conditions. For example, developing frost-tolerant cultivars would continue to be recommended to plant earlier under the mild climate change conditions, whereas breeding mid-late maturity cultivars with high-temperature tolerance would be needed to delay senescence and enhance late tuber growth under the severe climate change conditions. Unlike spring potato, the breeding goal for summer potato of increasing high-temperature tolerance holds across all climate change conditions. Finally, these optimistic results should be interpreted with caution as the current model does not fully capture the effect of high-temperature episodes and the interactive effect between CO2 and temperature, which may reduce beneficial projected climate change impacts.
期刊介绍:
Potato Research, the journal of the European Association for Potato Research (EAPR), promotes the exchange of information on all aspects of this fast-evolving global industry. It offers the latest developments in innovative research to scientists active in potato research. The journal includes authoritative coverage of new scientific developments, publishing original research and review papers on such topics as:
Molecular sciences;
Breeding;
Physiology;
Pathology;
Nematology;
Virology;
Agronomy;
Engineering and Utilization.