A glimpse into the future: The 2023 ocean temperature and sea-ice extremes in the context of longer-term climate change

Abstract

Abstract In the year 2023, we have seen extraordinary extrema in high sea-surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic and in low sea-ice extent in the Southern Ocean, outside the 4-sigma envelope of the 1982-2011 daily timeseries. Earth’s net global energy imbalance (12 months up to September 2023) amounts to +1.9 W/m2 as part of a remarkably large upward trend, ensuring further heating of the ocean. However, the regional radiation budget over the North Atlantic does not show signs of a suggested significant step increase from less negative aerosol forcing since 2020. While the temperature in the top 100 m of the global ocean has been rising in all basins since about 1980, specifically the Atlantic basin has continued to further heat up since 2016, potentially contributing to the extreme SST. Similarly, salinity in the top 100 m of the ocean has increased in recent years specifically in the Atlantic basin, and in addition in about 2015 a substantial negative trend for sea-ice extent in the Southern Ocean began. Analysing climate and Earth System model simulations of the future, we find that the extreme SST in the North Atlantic and the extreme in Southern Ocean sea-ice extent in 2023 lie at the fringe of the expected mean climate change for a global surface-air temperature warming level (GWL) of 1.5°C, and closer to the average at a 3.0°C GWL. Understanding the regional and global drivers of these extremes is indispensable for assessing frequency and impacts of similar events in the coming years.