Mandatory seatbelt laws and traffic fatalities: A reassessment

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-01-16 DOI:10.1002/jae.3026

D. Mark Anderson, Yang Liang, Joseph J. Sabia

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Using data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System for the period 1983–1997, Cohen and Einav (Review of Economics and Statistics 2003; 85[4]: 828–843) found that mandatory seatbelt laws were associated with a 4–6% reduction in traffic fatalities among motor vehicle occupants. After successfully replicating their two-way fixed effects estimates, we (1) add 22 years of data (1998–2019) to capture additional seatbelt policy variation and observe a longer post-treatment period, (2) employ the interaction-weighted estimator proposed by Sun and Abraham (2021) to address potential bias due to heterogeneous and dynamic treatment effects, and (3) estimate event-study models to investigate pre-treatment trends and explore lagged post-treatment effects. Consistent with Cohen and Einav (2003), our updated estimates show that primary seatbelt laws are associated with a 5 to 9% reduction in fatalities among motor vehicle occupants. Estimated effects of secondary seatbelt laws are smaller in magnitude and sensitive to model choice.

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强制性安全带法与交通死亡事故：重新评估

Cohen 和 Einav（《经济学与统计学评论》，2003 年；85[4]: 828-843）利用 1983-1997 年期间死亡分析报告系统的数据发现，强制性安全带法律可使机动车乘员的交通事故死亡率降低 4-6%。在成功复制了他们的双向固定效应估计值后，我们（1）增加了 22 年的数据（1998-2019 年），以捕捉更多的安全带政策变化并观察更长的后处理期；（2）采用 Sun 和 Abraham（2021 年）提出的交互加权估计器，以解决异质性和动态处理效应导致的潜在偏差；（3）估计事件研究模型，以调查处理前趋势并探索滞后的后处理效应。与 Cohen 和 Einav（2003 年）的研究结果一致，我们更新的估算结果显示，一级安全带法律可使机动车乘员的死亡人数减少 5% 至 9%。二级安全带法律的估计效果幅度较小，而且对模型选择很敏感。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Applied Econometrics Multiple-

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

4.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Applied Econometrics is an international journal published bi-monthly, plus 1 additional issue (total 7 issues). It aims to publish articles of high quality dealing with the application of existing as well as new econometric techniques to a wide variety of problems in economics and related subjects, covering topics in measurement, estimation, testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. The emphasis is on the careful and rigorous application of econometric techniques and the appropriate interpretation of the results. The economic content of the articles is stressed. A special feature of the Journal is its emphasis on the replicability of results by other researchers. To achieve this aim, authors are expected to make available a complete set of the data used as well as any specialised computer programs employed through a readily accessible medium, preferably in a machine-readable form. The use of microcomputers in applied research and transferability of data is emphasised. The Journal also features occasional sections of short papers re-evaluating previously published papers. The intention of the Journal of Applied Econometrics is to provide an outlet for innovative, quantitative research in economics which cuts across areas of specialisation, involves transferable techniques, and is easily replicable by other researchers. Contributions that introduce statistical methods that are applicable to a variety of economic problems are actively encouraged. The Journal also aims to publish review and survey articles that make recent developments in the field of theoretical and applied econometrics more readily accessible to applied economists in general.

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