Estimating intraevent and interevent variability and spatial correlation of tropical cyclone wind fields and their use for the risk assessment of a portfolio of structures

Abstract

Often the tropical cyclone (TC) wind hazard assessment requires the use of the TC wind field model. While theoretical models typically predict the observed wind field well, there can be a spatially varying residual correlation that impacts the damage assessment of communities or groups of structures. In this study, we focus on developing spatial correlation models and assessing the intraevent and interevent variability of the TC wind field using the H*Wind dataset and two widely used wind field models - the vertically averaged boundary layer slab model and the gradient wind field-based model. Our models and the statistics of the interevent and intraevent variability are integrated into a framework for evaluating the wind-induced damage of a portfolio of structures. The framework includes simulating TC tracks and wind fields, considering interevent and intraevent variabilities, and assessing peak linear elastic and nonlinear responses. Numerical examples illustrating the use of this framework are provided, indicating that realistic spatial correlation of the TC wind field needs to be considered to assess the correlation coefficient of the damage factor of a pair of spatially distributed structures and the probability distribution of the damage cost of a portfolio of structures.