Cellular automata-based simulators for the design of prescribed fire plans: the case study of Liguria, Italy

Abstract

Socio-economic changes in recent decades have resulted in an accumulation of fuel within Mediterranean forests, creating conditions conducive to potential catastrophic wildfires intensified by climate change. Consequently, several wildfire management systems have integrated prescribed fires as a proactive strategy for land management and wildfire risk reduction. The preparation of prescribed fires involves meticulous planning, entailing the identification of specific objectives, verification of prescriptions, and the definition of various scenarios. During the planning phase, simulation models offer a valuable decision-support tool for the qualitative and quantitative assessment of different scenarios. In this study, we harnessed the capabilities of the well-established wildfire simulation tool PROPAGATOR, to identify areas where prescribed fires can be performed, optimizing the wildfire risk mitigation and the costs. We selected a case study in the Liguria region, Italy, where the model is utilized operationally by the regional wildfire risk management system in emergency situations. Initially, we employed the propagation model to simulate a historical wildfire event, showcasing its potential as an emergency response tool. We focused on the most significant fire incident that occurred in the Liguria region in 2022. Subsequently, we employed PROPAGATOR to identify optimal areas for prescribed fires with the dual objectives of maximizing the mitigation of wildfire risk and minimizing treatment costs. The delineation of potential areas for prescribed fires has been established in accordance with regional regulations and expert-based insights. The methodology put forth in this study is capable of discerning the most suitable areas for the implementation of prescribed burns from a preselected set. A Monte Carlo simulation framework was employed to evaluate the efficacy of prescribed burns in mitigating the spread of wildfires. This assessment accounted for a variety of conditions, including fuel loads, ignition points, and meteorological patterns. The PROPAGATOR model was utilized to simulate the progression of wildfire spread. This study underscores the utility of PROPAGATOR in offering both quantitative and qualitative insights that can inform prescribed fire planning. Our methodology has been designed to involve active engagement with subject matter experts throughout the process, to develop scenarios grounded in their expert opinions. The ability to assess diverse scenarios and acquire quantitative information empowers decision-makers to make informed choices, thereby advancing safer and more efficient fire management practices.