Reevaluating Earthquake Fatalities in the Taiwan Region: Toward More Accurate Assessments

Abstract

Earthquakes occurring in the Taiwan region have the potential to cause significant damage and loss of life. To ensure an effective emergence response and mitigate the impact of seismic events, it is imperative to develop an earthquake fatality prediction model that incorporates the Taiwan region’s seismic background, geological context, and socioeconomic level. This research article analyzes 35 historically damaging earthquakes in the Taiwan region, considering their fatality records, macroseismic intensities (modified Mercalli shaking intensity scale), and population exposure, to propose a specific seismic fatality ratio applicable to the Taiwan region. The model incorporates adjustments based on the gross national income per capita to address temporal and spatial disparities resulting from socioeconomic development. The predicted results highlight the superior performance of this fatality estimation model compared to other existing models. Furthermore, the earthquake fatality estimation model for the Taiwan region differs significantly from the models employed for South China and Qinghai–Tibet, suggesting variations in geological background, earthquake-resistant structures, and seismic resilience of society between the Taiwan region and mainland China. Moreover, a comparison with the U.S. Geological Survey model for the Taiwan region reveals that previous evaluations of the Taiwan region earthquakes greatly underestimated the number of fatalities.