VB-Based Gaussian Sum Cubature Kalman Filter for Adaptive Estimation of Unknown Delay and Loss Probability

Abstract

The traditional Kalman filter assumes that all measurements can be obtained in real time, which is invalid in practical engineering. Therefore, a variational Bayesian- (VB-) based Gaussian sum cubature Kalman filter is proposed to solve the nonlinear tracking problem of multistep random measurement delay and loss (MRMDL) with unknown probability. First, the measurement model with MRMDL is modified by Bernoulli random variables. Then, the expression of the likelihood function is reformulated as a mixture of multiple Gaussian distributions, and the cubature rule is used to improve the estimation accuracy under the framework of Gaussian sum filter in the process of time update. Finally, by constructing a hierarchical Gaussian model, the unknown and time-varying measurement delay and loss probability are estimated in real time with the state jointly using the VB method in the measurement update stage. The algorithm does not need to calculate the equivalent noise covariance matrix so as to avoid the possible division by zero operation, which improves the stability of the algorithm. Simulation results for a target tracking problem show that the proposed algorithm has a better performance in the presence of MRMDL and can estimate the unknown measurement delay and loss probability accurately.