{"title":"A Dynamic Analysis of Arrears and Income Poverty in Italy","authors":"Chiara Mussida, Dario Sciulli","doi":"10.1007/s40797-024-00265-7","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>We explore the effects of income poverty on the probability of being in arrears in Italy. We account for endogeneity by using a bivariate discrete response model, which allows considering feedback effects from arrears to future poverty status and selection issues. We also offer an analysis by macro-region. We use longitudinal 2016–2019 EU-SILC data. Our results suggest that being in arrears is characterized by a significant trap effect, which, however, tends to decline over time. We also find the presence of feedback effects from arrears condition to future poverty status. Notably, current poverty status is negatively associated with current arrears status, but the correlation is positive in the medium term. This may suggest that income conditions need time to exert their effects on the probability of being in arrears. In the medium term, being in arrears increases the probability of being poor. We also note heterogeneity at the regional level.</p>","PeriodicalId":43048,"journal":{"name":"Italian Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Italian Economic Journal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40797-024-00265-7","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
We explore the effects of income poverty on the probability of being in arrears in Italy. We account for endogeneity by using a bivariate discrete response model, which allows considering feedback effects from arrears to future poverty status and selection issues. We also offer an analysis by macro-region. We use longitudinal 2016–2019 EU-SILC data. Our results suggest that being in arrears is characterized by a significant trap effect, which, however, tends to decline over time. We also find the presence of feedback effects from arrears condition to future poverty status. Notably, current poverty status is negatively associated with current arrears status, but the correlation is positive in the medium term. This may suggest that income conditions need time to exert their effects on the probability of being in arrears. In the medium term, being in arrears increases the probability of being poor. We also note heterogeneity at the regional level.
期刊介绍：
Italian Economic Journal (ItEJ) is the official peer-reviewed journal of the Italian Economic Association. ItEJ publishes scientific articles in all areas of economics and economic policy, providing a scholarly, international forum for all methodological approaches and schools of thought. In particular, ItEJ aims at encouraging and disseminating high-quality research on the Italian and the European economy. To fulfill this aim, the journal welcomes applied, institutional and theoretical papers on relevant and timely issues concerning the European and Italian economic debate.ItEJ merges the Rivista Italiana degli Economisti (RIE), the journal founded by the Italian Economic Association in 1996, with the Giornale degli Economisti (GdE), founded in 1875 and enriched by contributions from renowned economists, including Amoroso, Black, Barone, De Viti de Marco, Edgeworth, Einaudi, Modigliani, Pantaleoni, Pareto, Slutsky, Tinbergen and Walras.
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