Introducing a Conceptual Map of Political Elites’ Responses to Different Types of Uncertain Phenomena

Abstract

Political elites—like ministers or members of parliament—face numerous phenomena that are characterized by uncertainty. Uncertainty ranges from resolvable to radical, whereby the former can be removed with more or better information, but radical uncertainty cannot. Remarkably, little is known about political elites’ responses to such phenomena, both theoretically (what responses are likely?) and empirically (which responses do political elites display?). This “New Ideas” contribution addresses the theoretical lacuna by presenting a multidisciplinary conceptual map of possible responses to radical and resolvable uncertainty. These responses influence political elites’ effectiveness in solving problems and, thus, how representative democracies function. The article also sketches how to identify the responses empirically.