Analyzing the relationship between oil prices and renewable energy sources in Italy during the first COVID-19 wave through quantile and wavelet analyses

IF 4.2 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Renewable Energy Focus Pub Date : 2024-01-19 DOI:10.1016/j.ref.2024.100544

Cosimo Magazzino , Lorenzo Giolli

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Abstract

The paper aims to analyze the evolution of oil prices and renewable energy production in Italy during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis with daily data for the period January 2020-September 2020 through several time series techniques (long memory test and spectral causality analysis) and Wavelet Analysis tools. Italy has been the first country all over the world to be severely hit by the pandemic, reacting immediately with strong restrictive measures. The applied results show that oil prices and renewable energy sources were highly correlated during the pandemic shock. Moreover, causality tests reveal a unidirectional flow running from solar, hydro, and wind sources to oil prices, highlighting the relevance of the effect of the energy transition on the oil market. It is also imperative for a country that is a net energy resources importer to achieve a more sustainable way of production and accelerate the energy transition process, especially during phases of high fossil fuel prices.

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通过量值分析和小波分析，分析 COVID-19 第一波期间意大利石油价格与可再生能源之间的关系

本文旨在利用 2020 年 1 月至 2020 年 9 月期间的每日数据，通过多种时间序列技术（长记忆测试和频谱因果关系分析）和小波分析工具，分析 COVID-19 大流行病危机第一波期间意大利石油价格和可再生能源生产的演变情况。意大利是世界上第一个受到大流行病严重打击的国家，立即采取了强有力的限制措施。应用结果表明，在大流行病冲击期间，石油价格和可再生能源高度相关。此外，因果关系测试表明，太阳能、水能和风能资源与石油价格之间存在单向流动，这凸显了能源转型对石油市场影响的相关性。对于一个能源资源净进口国来说，实现更可持续的生产方式并加快能源转型进程也是当务之急，尤其是在化石燃料价格高企的阶段。

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