EV-share development: speed vs interest to adopt

IF 5.1 3区 工程技术 Q1 TRANSPORTATION European Transport Research Review Pub Date : 2024-02-02 DOI:10.1186/s12544-024-00637-1
Riku Viri, Johanna Mäkinen
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Abstract

Transport is a notable source of greenhouse gas emissions. While the mobility habits of people have an effect on a large share of the emissions, the development of the car fleet also plays a major role. In this study, Finnish SALAMA-model is used to calculate nine different scenarios, examining how changes in both the car fleet turnover speed and interest towards electric vehicles (EVs) affect the amount of EVs and total emissions from the passenger cars in Finland up to the year 2040. With the baseline scenario (normal interest and car fleet turnover speed) 28% of cars in use would be EVs (total of PHEVs and BEVs) by 2030. In contrast, scenario with higher interest and faster turnover suggest that nearly half of all cars could be EVs. When focusing on CO2 emissions, only the scenario with the fastest turnover speed with high interest aligns with the Finnish targets for 2030. Thus, car fleet development is only a part of the emission reduction, and other measures are also needed. Based on the results, it should be noted that even though many current and past policies are often focused on increasing interest towards EVs, any solutions driving faster turnover of the car fleet would also significantly impact emission reduction.
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电动汽车共享发展:采用速度与兴趣
交通是一个显著的温室气体排放源。虽然人们的出行习惯对大部分排放量有影响,但车队的发展也起着重要作用。在这项研究中,芬兰的 SALAMA 模型被用于计算九种不同的情景,以研究直到 2040 年,车队周转速度和对电动汽车(EV)的兴趣的变化会如何影响电动汽车的数量和芬兰乘用车的总排放量。在基准情景下(兴趣和车队周转速度正常),到2030年,28%的在用汽车将是电动汽车(PHEV和BEV的总和)。相比之下,如果汽车兴趣较高,更新速度较快,则电动汽车将占所有汽车的近一半。在关注二氧化碳排放量时,只有高关注度、周转速度最快的方案才符合芬兰2030年的目标。因此,发展车队只是减排的一部分,还需要采取其他措施。基于上述结果,我们应该注意到,尽管当前和过去的许多政策往往侧重于提高人们对电动汽车的兴趣,但任何推动汽车车队加快周转的解决方案也会对减排产生重大影响。
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来源期刊
European Transport Research Review
European Transport Research Review Engineering-Mechanical Engineering
CiteScore
8.60
自引率
4.70%
发文量
49
审稿时长
13 weeks
期刊介绍: European Transport Research Review (ETRR) is a peer-reviewed open access journal publishing original high-quality scholarly research and developments in areas related to transportation science, technologies, policy and practice. Established in 2008 by the European Conference of Transport Research Institutes (ECTRI), the Journal provides researchers and practitioners around the world with an authoritative forum for the dissemination and critical discussion of new ideas and methodologies that originate in, or are of special interest to, the European transport research community. The journal is unique in its field, as it covers all modes of transport and addresses both the engineering and the social science perspective, offering a truly multidisciplinary platform for researchers, practitioners, engineers and policymakers. ETRR is aimed at a readership including researchers, practitioners in the design and operation of transportation systems, and policymakers at the international, national, regional and local levels.
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