{"title":"EV-share development: speed vs interest to adopt","authors":"Riku Viri, Johanna Mäkinen","doi":"10.1186/s12544-024-00637-1","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Transport is a notable source of greenhouse gas emissions. While the mobility habits of people have an effect on a large share of the emissions, the development of the car fleet also plays a major role. In this study, Finnish SALAMA-model is used to calculate nine different scenarios, examining how changes in both the car fleet turnover speed and interest towards electric vehicles (EVs) affect the amount of EVs and total emissions from the passenger cars in Finland up to the year 2040. With the baseline scenario (normal interest and car fleet turnover speed) 28% of cars in use would be EVs (total of PHEVs and BEVs) by 2030. In contrast, scenario with higher interest and faster turnover suggest that nearly half of all cars could be EVs. When focusing on CO2 emissions, only the scenario with the fastest turnover speed with high interest aligns with the Finnish targets for 2030. Thus, car fleet development is only a part of the emission reduction, and other measures are also needed. Based on the results, it should be noted that even though many current and past policies are often focused on increasing interest towards EVs, any solutions driving faster turnover of the car fleet would also significantly impact emission reduction. ","PeriodicalId":12079,"journal":{"name":"European Transport Research Review","volume":"40 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"European Transport Research Review","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12544-024-00637-1","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"TRANSPORTATION","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Transport is a notable source of greenhouse gas emissions. While the mobility habits of people have an effect on a large share of the emissions, the development of the car fleet also plays a major role. In this study, Finnish SALAMA-model is used to calculate nine different scenarios, examining how changes in both the car fleet turnover speed and interest towards electric vehicles (EVs) affect the amount of EVs and total emissions from the passenger cars in Finland up to the year 2040. With the baseline scenario (normal interest and car fleet turnover speed) 28% of cars in use would be EVs (total of PHEVs and BEVs) by 2030. In contrast, scenario with higher interest and faster turnover suggest that nearly half of all cars could be EVs. When focusing on CO2 emissions, only the scenario with the fastest turnover speed with high interest aligns with the Finnish targets for 2030. Thus, car fleet development is only a part of the emission reduction, and other measures are also needed. Based on the results, it should be noted that even though many current and past policies are often focused on increasing interest towards EVs, any solutions driving faster turnover of the car fleet would also significantly impact emission reduction.
期刊介绍:
European Transport Research Review (ETRR) is a peer-reviewed open access journal publishing original high-quality scholarly research and developments in areas related to transportation science, technologies, policy and practice. Established in 2008 by the European Conference of Transport Research Institutes (ECTRI), the Journal provides researchers and practitioners around the world with an authoritative forum for the dissemination and critical discussion of new ideas and methodologies that originate in, or are of special interest to, the European transport research community. The journal is unique in its field, as it covers all modes of transport and addresses both the engineering and the social science perspective, offering a truly multidisciplinary platform for researchers, practitioners, engineers and policymakers. ETRR is aimed at a readership including researchers, practitioners in the design and operation of transportation systems, and policymakers at the international, national, regional and local levels.