СANCER INCIDENCE IN UKRAINE: TRENDS IN 2010-2019 AND THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC.

Abstract

Background: In 2020, a sharp decrease in the number of new cancer cases was registered in Ukraine in the setting of the quarantine restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which contrasted with the previous trends.

Aim: To study trends of cancer incidence rates in Ukraine in the recent decade and to assess the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on cancer detection in 2020.

Materials and methods: Records on cancer cases diagnosed during 2010-2020 (n = 1,498,911) from the database of the National Cancer Registry of Ukraine were used; the data being submitted early in 2022. Trends of the age-standardized incidence rates in 2010-2019 were estimated by the Joinpoint Regression Program.

Results: During 2010-2019, the incidence rates increased (p < 0.05) for colon, prostate, and pharyngeal cancers in males and for colon, thyroid, and pancreas in females with the rates of other prevalent cancers being stable or decreasing (lung and larynx in males, cervix and rectum in females, stomach in both genders); the incidence increased mainly at the expense of the population aged 60-74 years. A significant decrease in cancer incidence was in males aged 40-59 years. In 2020, the serious negative impact of COVID-19 outbreak on the timely detection of cancer occurred in all adult age groups of the Ukrainian population and involved all the most common cancers. The most pronounced diminution of the incidence rate was observed for non-melanoma skin cancers (by 35.9%- 37.9%); the decrements of the rates for other prevalent cancers varied from -23.0% (prostate gland) to -9.7% (pharynx) in males and from -21.2% (kidney) to -9.1% (pancreas) in females, the greatest ones being in the population aged 75+.

Conclusions: The sharp drop of the cancer incidence rates registered in Ukraine 2020 is evidently the result of the limited access to healthcare facilities as well as the reduced oncological alertness of the population due to the predominant focus on COVID-19 during the pandemic. However, it is not a manifestation of a decrease in cancer incidence as such. In the following years, this may increase the proportion of advanced-stage diagnoses, the load on the cancer care system, and cancer mortality in the Ukrainian population. An evaluation of the short-termand long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the cancer burden in Ukraine requires further monitoring.