Carbon-Free Russia: Is There a Chance to Achieve Carbon Neutrality by 2060

IF 0.6 4区物理与天体物理 Q4 MECHANICS Doklady Physics Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI:10.1134/s1028335823070030

V. V. Klimenko, A. V. Klimenko, A. G. Tereshin

{"title":"Carbon-Free Russia: Is There a Chance to Achieve Carbon Neutrality by 2060","authors":"V. V. Klimenko, A. V. Klimenko, A. G. Tereshin","doi":"10.1134/s1028335823070030","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Abstract</h3><p>The prospects for reducing the carbon intensity of the Russian economy and the possibility of achieving climate neutrality of the national economy by 2060 are studied. On the basis of a historical-extrapolation approach to the study of the development of various sociotechnical systems by comparison with the dynamics of carbon indicators of the economies of the leading countries of the world, it is shown that full compensation for anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) by absorption by the biosphere (primarily forests) is theoretically possible with implementation of difficult-to-implement large-scale reform programs in all sectors of the country’s economy—from energy to forestry. Thus, in an optimistic scenario, the rate of decline in specific GHG emissions per capita should be the maximum value achieved in the world over the past 50 years at 1% per year, and forest management should include full compensation for growing deforestation and a 50% reduction in forest losses from fires, which are currently the second (after energy) source of GHG emissions into the atmosphere. The most likely scenario is one with a rate of reduction in specific GHG emissions per capita of 0.5%/year, and a significant reduction in the sinking capacity of forests to the level of 1990 due to the aging of forests and imperfect reforestation activities. Under the latter scenario, net GHG emissions by 2060 could reach 0.7 Gt CO<sub>2eq</sub>, which would require the creation of a national industry for large-scale carbon capture and storage in order to achieve climate neutrality of the Russian economy.</p>","PeriodicalId":533,"journal":{"name":"Doklady Physics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Doklady Physics","FirstCategoryId":"101","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1134/s1028335823070030","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"MECHANICS","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

The prospects for reducing the carbon intensity of the Russian economy and the possibility of achieving climate neutrality of the national economy by 2060 are studied. On the basis of a historical-extrapolation approach to the study of the development of various sociotechnical systems by comparison with the dynamics of carbon indicators of the economies of the leading countries of the world, it is shown that full compensation for anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) by absorption by the biosphere (primarily forests) is theoretically possible with implementation of difficult-to-implement large-scale reform programs in all sectors of the country’s economy—from energy to forestry. Thus, in an optimistic scenario, the rate of decline in specific GHG emissions per capita should be the maximum value achieved in the world over the past 50 years at 1% per year, and forest management should include full compensation for growing deforestation and a 50% reduction in forest losses from fires, which are currently the second (after energy) source of GHG emissions into the atmosphere. The most likely scenario is one with a rate of reduction in specific GHG emissions per capita of 0.5%/year, and a significant reduction in the sinking capacity of forests to the level of 1990 due to the aging of forests and imperfect reforestation activities. Under the latter scenario, net GHG emissions by 2060 could reach 0.7 Gt CO_2eq, which would require the creation of a national industry for large-scale carbon capture and storage in order to achieve climate neutrality of the Russian economy.

Abstract Image

查看原文

微信好友朋友圈 QQ好友复制链接

本刊更多论文

无碳俄罗斯：是否有机会在 2060 年之前实现碳中和

摘要研究了降低俄罗斯经济碳强度的前景以及到 2060 年实现国民经济气候中和的可能性。通过与世界主要国家经济的碳指标动态进行比较，在对各种社会技术系统的发展进行历史外推法研究的基础上，研究表明，通过生物圈（主要是森林）的吸收来完全补偿温室气体（GHGs）的人为排放在理论上是可能的，只要在国家经济的所有部门--从能源到林业--实施难以实施的大规模改革计划。因此，在乐观的情况下，人均特定温室气体排放量的下降速度应达到过去 50 年中全世界的最大值，即每年 1%，森林管理应包括对不断增加的森林砍伐进行充分补偿，并将火灾造成的森林损失减少 50%，而火灾是目前向大气排放温室气体的第二大来源（仅次于能源）。最有可能出现的情况是，人均温室气体具体排放量的降幅为 0.5%/年，同时，由于森林老化和再造林活动不完善，森林的下沉能力将大幅降至 1990 年的水平。在后一种情况下，到 2060 年，温室气体净排放量可能达到 0.7 千兆吨二氧化碳当量，这就需要建立一个大规模碳捕获和储存的国家产业，以实现俄罗斯经济的气候中和。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文去求助

来源期刊

Doklady Physics 物理-力学

CiteScore

1.40

自引率

12.50%

发文量

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Doklady Physics is a journal that publishes new research in physics of great significance. Initially the journal was a forum of the Russian Academy of Science and published only best contributions from Russia in the form of short articles. Now the journal welcomes submissions from any country in the English or Russian language. Every manuscript must be recommended by Russian or foreign members of the Russian Academy of Sciences.