Digital diplomacy in the age of technological acceleration: three impact scenarios of generative artificial intelligence

Abstract

In this article, we employ the prism of technological acceleration to consider how Generative AI may impact the spatial–temporal dimensions of diplomacy, and what ramifications this transformation may hold for its practice. To do so, we distinguish between Horizontal Acceleration, which relates to the number of diplomatic domains that are progressively impacted by the introduction of a new digital technology, and Vertical Acceleration, which relates to how ripple effects reverberate within the diplomatic domain and how deeply. Next, we outline three possible scenarios in which Generative AI leads to minimal or maximal horizontal and vertical acceleration. In the Dedalus scenario, Generative AI’s impact is confined to a few domains, predominantly influencing diplomats’ daily routines. In the Heracles scenario, Generative AI systems interact with one another rendering human diplomats as mere messengers. We coin this outcome as ‘the end of diplomacy.’ Finally, we anticipate that many MFAs may position themselves between these two poles in the Pygmalion scenario.