A method for estimating the effect of climate change on monthly mean temperatures: September 2023 and other recent record-warm months in Helsinki, Finland

IF 2 4区地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2024-02-12 DOI:10.1002/asl.1216

Mika Rantanen, Jouni Räisänen, Joonas Merikanto

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Abstract

We describe a method for quantifying the contribution of climate change to local monthly, seasonal, and annual mean temperatures for locations where long observational temperature records are available. The method is based on estimating the change in the monthly mean temperature distribution due to climate change using CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) model data. As a case study, we apply the method to the record-warm September 2023 in Helsinki, and then briefly examine all record-warm months of the 21st century. Our results suggest that climate change made the record-warm September in Helsinki 9.4 times more likely and 1.4°C warmer. Thus, the new monthly mean record in September 2023 would probably not have been set without the observed global warming. The presented and provided tool allows operational meteorologists and climatologists to monitor and report the impact of climate change on local temperatures in near real time.

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气候变化对月平均气温影响的估算方法：2023 年 9 月和芬兰赫尔辛基近期其他创纪录的温暖月份

我们介绍了一种方法，用于量化气候变化对有长期气温观测记录的地方的月平均气温、季节平均气温和年平均气温的影响。该方法基于利用 CMIP6（耦合模式相互比较项目第 6 阶段）模式数据估算气候变化导致的月平均气温分布变化。作为一项案例研究，我们将该方法应用于 2023 年 9 月赫尔辛基创纪录的温暖月份，然后简要研究了 21 世纪所有创纪录的温暖月份。我们的研究结果表明，气候变化使赫尔辛基出现创纪录的温暖 9 月的可能性增加了 9.4 倍，温度升高了 1.4°C。因此，如果没有观测到的全球变暖，2023 年 9 月创下月平均温度新纪录的可能性不大。通过介绍和提供的工具，业务气象学家和气候学家可以近乎实时地监测和报告气候变化对当地气温的影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Atmospheric Science Letters METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-

CiteScore

4.90

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Atmospheric Science Letters (ASL) is a wholly Open Access electronic journal. Its aim is to provide a fully peer reviewed publication route for new shorter contributions in the field of atmospheric and closely related sciences. Through its ability to publish shorter contributions more rapidly than conventional journals, ASL offers a framework that promotes new understanding and creates scientific debate - providing a platform for discussing scientific issues and techniques. We encourage the presentation of multi-disciplinary work and contributions that utilise ideas and techniques from parallel areas. We particularly welcome contributions that maximise the visualisation capabilities offered by a purely on-line journal. ASL welcomes papers in the fields of: Dynamical meteorology; Ocean-atmosphere systems; Climate change, variability and impacts; New or improved observations from instrumentation; Hydrometeorology; Numerical weather prediction; Data assimilation and ensemble forecasting; Physical processes of the atmosphere; Land surface-atmosphere systems.

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