Preliminary diagnosis of primary factors for an unprecedented heatwave over Japan in 2023 summer

Abstract

In summer 2023, record-high temperatures were observed in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere, including Japan, where summer-mean temperature was the highest over the last 126 years. Under an unprecedented heatwave in late July through September, record-high temperatures were successively observed particularly over northern and eastern Japan. The late-July heatwave is attributable primarily to the markedly-intensified North Pacific Subtropical High over Japan, accompanied by the poleward-deflected subtropical jet (STJ). This situation occurred under the influence of the Pacific–Japan pattern driven by northwestward-moving enhanced tropical convection over the western North Pacific and the Silk-Road pattern. The enhanced convection was influenced by upper-level cyclonic vortices detached from the intensified mid-Pacific trough. Seemingly, it was also under the remote influence from positive sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific as well as negative ones in the central–eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, considered as remnant and delayed impacts of long-lasted La Niña until the preceding winter. The August heatwave occurred under the persistent poleward-shift of STJ as well as warm, moist low-level southerlies and their downslope-wind effects. Both extremely high SST around northern Japan and a long-term warming trend in air temperature could also contribute to the record-setting air temperature.