Impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of the endemic shrub Rubus asirensis in the Arabian Peninsula

Abstract

The population size of the Rubus asirensis has declined significantly over the previous century across its geographical region. This decrease is related to changes in natural resources, such as water and foraging site capacity, due to continuous climate change. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to study R. asirensis’s reaction to projected climate change over the next few decades. To reduce uncertainty and bias in our SDM predictions, we fitted ensemble SDMs with freshly developed climatic data based on more accurate climate models and diverse dispersal scenarios. In Abha, Tanumah town, Al-Numas in Asir mountains, and Al-Baha province southwest of Saudi Arabia, our SDMs revealed a potential presence of R. asirensis. Furthermore, our models anticipated that the distribution range of R. asirensis would drop by more than 25% during the next few decades. Our findings advocate for immediate conservation action of reintroduction and in situ conservation planning.