Can Deliberation Have Lasting Effects?

James Fishkin, Valentin Bolotnyy, Joshua Lerner, Alice Siu, Norman Bradburn
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Abstract

Does deliberation produce any lasting effects? “America in One Room” was a national field experiment in which more than 500 randomly selected registered voters were brought from all over the country to deliberate on five major issues facing the country. A pre-post control group was also surveyed on the same questions after the weekend and about a year later. There were significant differences in voting intention and in actual voting behavior a year later among the deliberators compared to the control group. This article accounts for these differences by showing how deliberation stimulated a latent variable of political engagement. If deliberation has lasting effects on political engagement, then it provides a rationale for attempts to scale the deliberative process to much larger numbers. The article considers methods for doing so in the context of the broader debate about mini-publics, isolated spheres of deliberation situated within a largely non-deliberative society.
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慎思能否产生持久的影响?
商议是否会产生持久的影响?"一室美国 "是一项全国性的实地实验,从全国各地随机抽取了 500 多名注册选民,就国家面临的五个重大问题进行商议。在周末之后和大约一年之后,还就同样的问题对一个前后对照组进行了调查。与对照组相比,商议者的投票意向和一年后的实际投票行为都存在明显差异。本文通过展示商议如何激发政治参与的潜在变量来解释这些差异。如果商议对政治参与有持久的影响,那么它就为尝试将商议过程扩大到更大范围提供了理由。文章结合有关小型公共机构的广泛讨论,考虑了这样做的方法,小型公共机构是在一个基本不议事的社会中孤立存在的议事领域。
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