Oil Price Shock and Trade Balance in Nigeria

J. Ozigbu
{"title":"Oil Price Shock and Trade Balance in Nigeria","authors":"J. Ozigbu","doi":"10.56201/ijebm.v9.no5.2023.pg13.25","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This study used the Brent crude oil price to examine whether the variability in the trade balance of Nigeria is linked to the fluctuation in oil price.To achieve this, the study used annual frequency data from 1981 to 2021 sourced from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the World Bank’s World Development Indicator (WDI), and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. The bound test procedure to cointegration was adopted and the nexus between oil shock and trade balance was examined within the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework. Additionally, the augmented Dickey-Fuller approach to unit root was used in determining the degree of integration of the series. Certain findings were made from the analyses. First, the study confirmed that there is long-run relationship among the variables. Second, oil price hikes lead to a surplus trade balance in the long run, but only insignificantly. Contrariwise, the positive impact of oil price hikes on the trade balance in the short run was significant. Third, the study found that inflation had an insignificant positive effect on the trade balance. Fourth, the estimation revealed that an increase in real effective exchange rate and trade openness is insignificant and lead to a deficit trade balance in the long run. The study recommends that domestic oil shocks in the form of low oil production should be mitigated by addressing the security challenges in the country.","PeriodicalId":486962,"journal":{"name":"IIARD INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS MANAGEMENT","volume":"1 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"IIARD INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS MANAGEMENT","FirstCategoryId":"0","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.56201/ijebm.v9.no5.2023.pg13.25","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study used the Brent crude oil price to examine whether the variability in the trade balance of Nigeria is linked to the fluctuation in oil price.To achieve this, the study used annual frequency data from 1981 to 2021 sourced from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the World Bank’s World Development Indicator (WDI), and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. The bound test procedure to cointegration was adopted and the nexus between oil shock and trade balance was examined within the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework. Additionally, the augmented Dickey-Fuller approach to unit root was used in determining the degree of integration of the series. Certain findings were made from the analyses. First, the study confirmed that there is long-run relationship among the variables. Second, oil price hikes lead to a surplus trade balance in the long run, but only insignificantly. Contrariwise, the positive impact of oil price hikes on the trade balance in the short run was significant. Third, the study found that inflation had an insignificant positive effect on the trade balance. Fourth, the estimation revealed that an increase in real effective exchange rate and trade openness is insignificant and lead to a deficit trade balance in the long run. The study recommends that domestic oil shocks in the form of low oil production should be mitigated by addressing the security challenges in the country.
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
石油价格冲击与尼日利亚的贸易平衡
本研究使用布伦特原油价格来研究尼日利亚贸易平衡的变化是否与石油价格的波动有关。为此,本研究使用了联合国贸易和发展会议(UNCTAD)、世界银行世界发展指标(WDI)和尼日利亚中央银行统计公报提供的 1981 年至 2021 年的年度频率数据。采用了协整约束检验程序,并在自回归分布滞后(ARDL)框架内研究了石油冲击与贸易平衡之间的关系。此外,在确定序列的整合程度时,还使用了增强型 Dickey-Fuller 单位根方法。分析得出了一些结论。首先,研究证实变量之间存在长期关系。其次,从长期来看,石油价格上涨会导致贸易顺差,但影响不大。相反,油价上涨对短期贸易平衡的积极影响是显著的。第三,研究发现,通货膨胀对贸易平衡的积极影响并不显著。第四,估算结果显示,实际有效汇率和贸易开放度的提高并不显著,长期来看会导致贸易收支逆差。该研究建议,应通过应对国家的安全挑战来减轻以石油产量低为形式的国内石油冲击。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 去求助
来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
期刊最新文献
Lean Technical Factors and Customer Relations: An Assessment of Readiness to Deploy Lean Manufacturing within SMEs Small and Medium Scale Business Financing and Its Effect on the Nigerian Economy: 1992 – 2021 Economic Factors influencing Brain Flight Intention among Medical Doctors in Federal Tertiary Healthcare Institutions, South-South, Nigeria Nexus Between Desire for Independence and New Venture Creation Effect of Management Efficiency on Performance of Listed Consumer Goods Companies in Nigeria
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1