Multiyear variability of cloud genera in Krakow in the context of changes in the thermal state of the North Atlantic

Abstract

The analysis conducted in this study examines the relationships between changes in cloud cover and the occurrence of cloud genera in Krakow, Poland, and the variations in the thermal state of the North Atlantic (NA) from 1951 to 2020. The existence of areas where annual sea surface temperature (SST) changes exhibit statistically significant correlations with the annual frequency of specific cloud genera was observed. These relationships vary in space: An increase in SST over the NA, particularly in the western and central regions of the subtropical NA, leads to a decrease in the frequency of stratiform clouds at all levels (Cs, As, Ns and St) and an increase in the frequency of convective clouds (Cu, Sc). An attempt to explain this phenomenon demonstrates that there is a correlation between the frequency of specific cloud genera and the variability of meridional SST gradients, as well as changes in the intensity of the thermohaline circulation in the NA (NA THC), which control the variability of mid‐tropospheric circulation (500 hPa). During positive phases of NA THC (the “warm” state of the NA), zonal circulation prevails over Europe, leading to an increase in the height of h500, an increase in the frequency of anticyclonic weather and a decrease in the frequency of cyclonic weather, including a significant proportion of frontal weather systems. Consequently, there is a reduction in frequency of stratiform clouds and an increase in the occurrence of vertically developed convective clouds, thereby increasing the possibility of observing middle‐level (Ac) and high‐level (Ci, Cc) clouds. In negative phases of NA THC (the “cool” state of the NA), the situation is reversed, with meridional circulation dominating over Europe, h500 lowering, an increase in the frequency of cyclonic systems with fronts, and an increase in the frequency of stratiform clouds. This results in decreased sunshine duration and a reduction in the amount of solar energy reaching the Earth's surface.