The Long Run and Short Run Impact of GDP and Real Income on Solid Waste in Nigeria Using Vector Error Correction Model

Abstract

This study investigates the long-run and short-run impacts of economic growth on solid waste generation in Nigeria using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Analyzing data from 1982 to 2022, the study reveals cointegration among solid waste, GDP, and real income, indicating a long-run equilibrium relationship. Key findings show that economic growth has a statistically significant and positive impact on waste generation in the long run, indicating a potential environmental trade-off associated with economic development. Conversely, resource intensity shows no significant long-run influence on waste generation. In the short run, past waste generation exhibits a positive and significant effect on current levels, highlighting the need for effective waste management practices to combat inertia and prevent further waste accumulation. Interestingly, the short-run impacts of both economic growth and resource intensity are found to be statistically insignificant. Based on these findings, we propose several policy recommendations for sustainable waste management in Nigeria: promoting environmentally friendly production processes, supporting resource recovery and waste-to-energy initiatives, implementing extended producer responsibility, expanding and improving waste collection infrastructure, investing in sorting and recycling facilities, and conducting public awareness campaigns. We further call for further research to explore the nuanced relationship between resource intensity and waste generation across different income groups and sectors.