Study on Rock Mechanics Parameter Prediction Method Based on DTW Similarity and Machine-Learning Algorithms

Abstract

Rock mechanics parameters are crucial factors for predicting rock behavior in oil and gas reservoirs, optimizing extraction strategies, and ensuring drilling safety. In this study, we propose a random forest (RF)-convolutional neural network (CNN)-long-term short-term memory network (LSTM) fusion model based on the dynamic time warping (DTW) algorithm to construct intelligent prediction models for elastic modulus, Poisson’s ratio, and compressive strength using real-time drilling engineering data. An autoencoder with a sliding window is employed to automatically identify abnormal points or segments in the calculated values of elastic modulus, Poisson’s ratio, and compressive strength obtained from drilled wells. These abnormal values are then corrected using a backpropagation (BP) neural network. Compared to single CNN-LSTM or single RF models, the RF-CNN-LSTM fusion model performs better. It achieves this by effectively combining the strengths of different algorithms in predicting outcomes. The accuracy of the RF-CNN-LSTM fusion model is over 94% when compared to the actual values. Furthermore, the analysis of the relative importance of input parameters reveals that weight on bit (WOB), temperature, displacement, equivalent circulation density (ECD), and mud density are the primary input features for predicting elastic modulus. For predicting Poisson’s ratio, the main input features include WOB, mud density, ECD, temperature, pumping pressure, displacement, and rate of penetration (ROP). Similarly, for predicting compressive strength, the main input features consist of WOB, temperature, displacement, ECD, and mud density. The research findings demonstrate that the rock mechanics parameter prediction models based on the RF-CNN-LSTM algorithm using DTW exhibit high computational accuracy in the B oil field of China. These results are significant for gaining a deeper understanding of the variations in rock mechanics parameters and optimizing drilling decisions.