Factors Associated with Reliable Contact Tracing During the 2021 Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak in Guinea.

Abstract

Background: In 2021, an Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak was declared in Guinea, linked to persistent virus from the 2014-2016 West Africa Epidemic. This paper analyzes factors associated with contact tracing reliability (defined as completion of a 21-day daily follow-up) during the 2021 outbreak, and transitively, provides recommendations for enhancing contact tracing reliability in future.

Methods: We conducted a descriptive and analytical cross-sectional study using multivariate regression analysis of contact tracing data from 1071 EVD contacts of 23 EVD cases (16 confirmed and 7 probable).

Results: Findings revealed statistically significant factors affecting contact tracing reliability. Unmarried contacts were 12.76× more likely to miss follow-up than those married (OR = 12.76; 95% CI [3.39-48.05]; p < 0.001). Rural-dwelling contacts had 99% lower odds of being missed during the 21-day follow-up, compared to those living in urban areas (OR = 0.01; 95% CI [0.00-0.02]; p < 0.01). Contacts who did not receive food donations were 3× more likely to be missed (OR = 3.09; 95% CI [1.68-5.65]; p < 0.001) compared to those who received them. Contacts in health areas with a single team were 8× more likely to be missed (OR = 8.16; 95% CI [5.57-11.96]; p < 0.01) than those in health areas with two or more teams (OR = 1.00; 95% CI [1.68-5.65]; p < 0.001). Unvaccinated contacts were 30.1× more likely to be missed compared to vaccinated contacts (OR = 30.1; 95% CI [5.12-176.83]; p < 0.001).

Conclusion: Findings suggest that contact tracing reliability can be significantly influenced by various demographic and organizational factors. Considering and understanding these factors-and where possible addressing them-may be crucial when designing and implementing contact tracing strategies during future outbreaks in low-resource settings.