Spatial Variation in Excess Mortality Across Europe: A Cross-Sectional Study of 561 Regions in 21 Countries.

IF 3.8 4区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health Pub Date : 2024-06-01 Epub Date: 2024-02-20 DOI:10.1007/s44197-024-00200-0
Florian Bonnet, Pavel Grigoriev, Markus Sauerberg, Ina Alliger, Michael Mühlichen, Carlo-Giovanni Camarda
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Abstract

Objective: To measure the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 at the subnational level by estimating excess mortality, defined as the increase in all-cause mortality relative to an expected baseline mortality level.

Methods: Statistical and demographic analyses of regional all-cause mortality data provided by the vital statistics systems of 21 European countries for 561 regions in Central and Western Europe. Life expectancy losses at ages 0 and 60 for males and females were estimated.

Results: We found evidence of a loss in life expectancy in 391 regions, whilst only three regions exhibit notable gains in life expectancy in 2020. For 12 regions, losses of life expectancy amounted to more than 2 years and three regions showed losses greater than 3 years. We highlight geographical clusters of high mortality in Northern Italy, Spain and Poland, whilst clusters of low mortality were found in Western France, Germany/Denmark and Norway/Sweden.

Conclusions: Regional differences of loss of life expectancy are impressive, ranging from a loss of more than 4 years to a gain of 8 months. These findings provide a strong rationale for regional analysis, as national estimates hide significant regional disparities.

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欧洲超常死亡率的空间差异:对 21 个国家 561 个地区的横断面研究》。
目标:通过估算超额死亡率,衡量 2020 年 COVID-19 大流行在国家以下一级造成的负担:通过估算超额死亡率(即相对于预期基线死亡率水平的全因死亡率增长)来衡量 2020 年 COVID-19 大流行在国家以下层面造成的负担:对 21 个欧洲国家生命统计系统提供的中欧和西欧 561 个地区全因死亡率数据进行统计和人口分析。对男性和女性 0 岁和 60 岁的预期寿命损失进行了估算:结果:我们发现 391 个地区的预期寿命有所缩短,只有 3 个地区的预期寿命在 2020 年显著延长。有 12 个地区的预期寿命损失超过 2 年,有 3 个地区的损失超过 3 年。我们强调了意大利北部、西班牙和波兰的高死亡率地理集群,而法国西部、德国/丹麦和挪威/瑞典则发现了低死亡率集群:结论:预期寿命损失的地区差异令人印象深刻,从损失 4 年多到增加 8 个月不等。这些发现为进行地区分析提供了强有力的依据,因为全国性的估计结果掩盖了显著的地区差异。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
10.70
自引率
1.40%
发文量
57
审稿时长
19 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health is an esteemed international publication, offering a platform for peer-reviewed articles that drive advancements in global epidemiology and international health. Our mission is to shape global health policy by showcasing cutting-edge scholarship and innovative strategies.
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