Predicting the duration of motorway incidents using machine learning

IF 5.1 3区 工程技术 Q1 TRANSPORTATION European Transport Research Review Pub Date : 2024-02-19 DOI:10.1186/s12544-024-00632-6
Robert Corbally, Linhao Yang, Abdollah Malekjafarian
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Abstract

Motorway incidents are frequent & varied in nature. Incident management on motorways is critical for both driver safety & road network operation. The expected duration of an incident is a key parameter in the decision-making process for control room operators, however, the actual duration for which an incident will impact the network is never known with true certainty. This paper presents a study which compares the ability of different machine learning algorithms to estimate the duration of motorway incidents on Ireland’s M50 motorway, using an extensive historical incident database. Results show that the support vector machine has the best performance in most cases, but a different method may need to be used to improve accuracy in some situations. Results highlight the main challenges in accurately forecasting incident durations in real time & recommendations are made for improving prediction accuracy through systematic recording of various additional incident details.
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利用机器学习预测高速公路事故的持续时间
高速公路事故频发,性质各异。高速公路上的事故管理对于驾驶员安全和路网运行都至关重要。事故的预期持续时间是控制室操作员决策过程中的一个关键参数,然而,事故对路网造成影响的实际持续时间却永远无法真正确定。本文利用大量历史事故数据库,比较了不同机器学习算法估计爱尔兰 M50 高速公路事故持续时间的能力。结果表明,支持向量机在大多数情况下性能最佳,但在某些情况下可能需要使用不同的方法来提高准确性。结果凸显了实时准确预测事故持续时间的主要挑战,并提出了通过系统记录各种附加事故细节来提高预测准确性的建议。
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来源期刊
European Transport Research Review
European Transport Research Review Engineering-Mechanical Engineering
CiteScore
8.60
自引率
4.70%
发文量
49
审稿时长
13 weeks
期刊介绍: European Transport Research Review (ETRR) is a peer-reviewed open access journal publishing original high-quality scholarly research and developments in areas related to transportation science, technologies, policy and practice. Established in 2008 by the European Conference of Transport Research Institutes (ECTRI), the Journal provides researchers and practitioners around the world with an authoritative forum for the dissemination and critical discussion of new ideas and methodologies that originate in, or are of special interest to, the European transport research community. The journal is unique in its field, as it covers all modes of transport and addresses both the engineering and the social science perspective, offering a truly multidisciplinary platform for researchers, practitioners, engineers and policymakers. ETRR is aimed at a readership including researchers, practitioners in the design and operation of transportation systems, and policymakers at the international, national, regional and local levels.
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