Utilizing interpretable stacking ensemble learning and NSGA-III for the prediction and optimisation of building photo-thermal environment and energy consumption

Abstract

This study develops an approach consisting of a stacking model integrated with a multi-objective optimisation algorithm aimed at predicting and optimising the ecological performance of buildings. The integrated model consists of five base models and a meta-model, which significantly improves the prediction performance. Specifically, the R² value was improved by 9.19% and the error metrics MAE, MSE, MAPE, and CVRMSE were reduced by 69.47%, 79.88%, 67.32%, and 57.02%, respectively, compared to the single prediction model. According to the research on interpretable machine learning, adding the SHAP value gives us a deeper understanding of the impact of each architectural design parameter on the performance. In the multi-objective optimisation part, we used the NSGA-III algorithm to successfully improve the energy efficiency, daylight utilisation and thermal comfort of the building. Specifically, the optimal design solution reduces the energy use intensity by 31.6 kWh/m², improves the useful daylight index by 39%, and modulated the thermal comfort index, resulting in a decrement of 0.69 °C for the summer season and an enhancement of 0.64 °C for the winter season, respectively. Overall, this study provides building designers and decision makers with a tool to make better design decisions at an early stage to achieve a better combination of energy efficiency, daylight utilisation and thermal comfort optimisation in an integrated manner, providing an important support for achieving sustainable building design.