Assessing the effect of international terrorism on civil liberties using a potential outcomes framework

Abstract

In this paper, we evaluate the effect of international terrorism on the civil liberties of the targeted states from 1972 through 2018, using a cross-country dataset. To deal with the problem of selection and control for the pre-attack dynamics, we use a potential outcomes framework to uncover the effect of the treatment on the outcome variable over time. In democracies, civil liberties are restricted after an international terrorist attack. The identified impact of international terrorism on civil liberties suggests an extended “state of emergency” period, as explained by the significant negative initial response, 1–8 years after an international attack occurs. Contrarily, we provide evidence for increased respect for civil liberties 2–10 years after an international attack occurs in authoritarian settings. The estimated effect appears to be non-negligible and robust across various specifications.