Will wind power be cost-effective for decarbonizing the city of Tabriz-Iran, whose economy is oil-based, and how?

Abstract

This paper investigates the decarbonization of Tabriz-City focusing on its wind power for electrification. Statistical, quantitative, comparative, and simulation-research-methods used to analyze the existing and future total energy consumption, demand, and cost in the city according to carbon-based and wind-based electricity. The Monte Carlo Simulation Method has been used to estimate the probability of the Levelized Cost of Electricity. Tabriz thermal power plant generates 1kWh electricity that costs 0.15 US$/kW without subsidies and produces 575 g.CO2/kW.h overall while it will plunge to 0.05US$/kWh producing 7 g.CO2/kWh using wind. The NPV and IRR (32%) analysis show that that investment in wind-based electricity is three times cheaper than thermal power electricity in Tabriz. It is shown that the electrification of an oil-based economy with wind-based power plants is an economical investment for the city. Besides the hub-height and rotor sweep area, the capacity factor is the most decisive in the productivity of the alternative turbines.