Discussion on the coupling relationship between flood risk and population vulnerability from climate justice

Zhifa Jiang, Q. Su, Yuepeng Cui
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Abstract

Facing the increasing uncertain climate change, people are paying more and more attention to climate justice in urbanization. Climate change has intensified the vulnerability of cities and may have a greater impact on vulnerable groups. Therefore, this research constructed a framework to explore the coupling relationship between flood risk and population vulnerability from the perspective of climate justice. In this framework, the indicators of population vulnerability and population resilience were built. Then, the flood risk was identified through the relationship of inundation potential. Furthermore, the coupling coordination degree model was used to calculate the coupling between population vulnerability and flood risk, and the coupling between population resilience and flood risk. Finally, the driving factors of urbanization contributing to such coupling were analyzed through the Tobit model. The specific conclusions are (i) the study area shows vulnerable groups more likely to live in areas with high flood risk, and (ii) vulnerable groups are susceptible to the impact of population density and development intensity, while relatively wealthy groups are susceptible to the impact of the level of economic development and urban built environment. The results contribute to a better understanding of spatial inequalities in flood risk and population vulnerability, and climate injustice.
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讨论洪水风险与气候正义造成的人口脆弱性之间的耦合关系
面对日益不确定的气候变化,人们越来越关注城市化进程中的气候公正问题。气候变化加剧了城市的脆弱性,并可能对弱势群体产生更大的影响。因此,本研究构建了一个框架,从气候正义的角度探讨洪水风险与人口脆弱性之间的耦合关系。在这一框架中,建立了人口脆弱性和人口复原力指标。然后,通过洪水淹没潜力的关系确定洪水风险。此外,利用耦合协调度模型计算了人口脆弱性与洪水风险之间的耦合度,以及人口恢复力与洪水风险之间的耦合度。最后,通过 Tobit 模型分析了导致这种耦合的城市化驱动因素。具体结论是:(i) 研究区域显示弱势群体更有可能居住在洪水风险较高的地区;(ii) 弱势群体易受人口密度和开发强度的影响,而相对富裕的群体易受经济发展水平和城市建筑环境的影响。这些结果有助于更好地理解洪水风险和人口脆弱性的空间不平等以及气候不公正问题。
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