Are extreme floods in the Danube River getting more frequent?: a case study of the Bratislava station

Abstract

In this study, strong and extreme flood events were analysed based on long-term daily runoff records of winter and summer floods in the Danube River between 1876 and 2020, using the peak-over-threshold method. Based on the results, the following conclusions can be made: (1) There is a downward trend in strong winter floods, but it is not statistically significant. Additionally, there is an upward trend in summer floods, but it is not statistically significant. (2) There are statistically significant upward trends in extreme events for both the winter and summer seasons. The results have implications for flood protection and disaster management on the Danube River. Regulating assets in flood-prone areas is essential to minimise economic damage. Public awareness of increasing extreme summer floods is vital for prevention. This study suggests that effective flood risk analysis requires (i) a local to regional scale approach to account for spatial variability and (ii) advanced statistical tools for robust detection of climate extremes and estimating their occurrence rates.