Analyzing the impact of meteorological drought on crop yield of Kerala, India: a wavelet coherence approach

Abstract

Drought is a natural phenomenon which is considered as an indicator of changing climatic conditions. The growth of crops is significantly affected by the lack of soil moisture caused by insufficient rainfall over a specific period. This study examines the occurrence of drought over seven districts in Kerala, India, by utilizing drought indices, namely the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the agricultural standardized precipitation index (aSPI). The measured data pertaining to rainfall and computed data of crop yield of the seven districts have been gathered to analyze the teleconnections of crop yield. Modified standardized yield residual series (M-SYRS) of different crops are prepared by the proposed approach of empirical mode decomposition-based detrending. The correlation between aSPI and M-SYRS exhibits a higher magnitude compared to the correlation that SPI and M-SYRS, confirming the significance of aSPI in the analysis of agricultural yield. The wavelet coherence analysis yields the values of percentage of significant coherence (PoSC) and average wavelet coherence (AWC) for the time scales of 3, 6, and 12 months, with respect to the variables aSPI and crop yield. The crop with the greatest AWC value of 0.71 and PoSC value of 62 is banana, which holds a dominant position in the agricultural landscape of Kottayam district. It is further noted that the short to medium seasonal droughts have profound impact on the agricultural yield of the different districts.