Time varying effects in survival analysis: a novel data-driven method for drift identification and variable selection

IF 4 3区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS Eurasian Business Review Pub Date : 2024-02-26 DOI:10.1007/s40821-024-00260-z
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Abstract

In this paper we address the problem of survival models when high-dimensional panel data are available. We discuss two related issues: The first one concerns the issue of variable selection and the second one deals with the stability over time of such a selection, since presence of time dimension in survival data requires explicit treatment of evolving socio-economic context. We show how graphical models can serve two purposes. First they serve as the input for a first algorithm to to assess the temporal stability of the data: Secondly, allow the deployment of a second algorithm which partially automates the process of variable selection, while retaining the option to incorporate domain expertise in the process of empirical model-building. To put our proposed methodology to the test, we utilize a dataset comprising Italian firms funded in 2009 and we study the survival of these entities over the period of 10 years. In addition to revealing significant volatility in the set of variables explaining firm exit over the years, our novel methodology enables us to offer a more nuanced perspective than the conventional one regarding the critical roles played by traditional variables such as industrial sector, geographical location, and innovativeness in firm survival.

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生存分析中的时变效应:漂移识别和变量选择的数据驱动新方法
摘要 本文探讨了有高维面板数据时的生存模型问题。我们讨论了两个相关问题:第一个问题涉及变量选择,第二个问题涉及这种选择随时间变化的稳定性,因为生存数据中时间维度的存在要求明确处理不断变化的社会经济背景。我们展示了图形模型如何实现两个目的。首先,它们可以作为第一种算法的输入,以评估数据的时间稳定性:其次,允许部署第二种算法,使变量选择过程部分自动化,同时保留将领域专业知识纳入经验模型构建过程的选项。为了检验我们提出的方法,我们利用了 2009 年获得融资的意大利公司数据集,研究了这些实体在 10 年间的生存情况。除了揭示了多年来解释企业退出的变量集的显著波动性之外,我们的新方法还使我们能够提供比传统方法更细致的视角,来看待工业部门、地理位置和创新能力等传统变量在企业生存中所发挥的关键作用。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.90
自引率
11.40%
发文量
32
期刊介绍: The Eurasian Business Review (EABR) publishes articles in Industrial Organization, Innovation and Management Science. In particular, EABR is committed to publishing empirical articles which provide significant contributions in the fields of the economics and management of innovation, industrial and business economics, corporate governance and corporate finance, entrepreneurship and organizational change, strategic management, accounting, marketing, human resources management, and information systems. While the main focus of EABR is on Europe and Asia, papers in the fields listed above on any region or country are highly encouraged. The Eurasian Business Review is one of the two official journals of the Eurasia Business and Economics Society (EBES) and is published quarterly.
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